After almost two weeks of absence I have managed to come
back to blog again. I’ll explain part of the reason in my commentary on health
which readers can access on left column on the list of general topics.
Slapstick comedy or soap opera drama – Philippine politics
at its worst.
The
latest headlines of the major dailies focus on the slapping challenge between
two candidates the EM (Establishment Media. a.k.a. mainstream media) is
highlighting these days – Rodrigo Duterte and Mar Roxas – to face each other in
a slapping match. How inane and meaningless cnthis campaign still get!
The EM seems to be dis-Gracing
the 2016 presidential elections by dismounting her name which it propped up with
soap –opera drama since September 2014 when the Little Ms. Poe-ppet of the U.S.
through Uncle (Washington) Sycip (see the November 15, 2015 blog) was foisted
upon the Filipino electorate despite her blatant and deliberate flaunting of
the provisions of the Constitution on citizenship requirement for candidacy to
elective national office.
Fake
Opposition to BS Aquino’s Liberal Party?
One of our colleagues Ferdie
Pasion believes, as he texted to us today: “Si Duterte and bagong kandidato ng
Inquirer, Star, ABS-CBN and other Aquino-owned media. Obvious na pinalalabas nilang
ONLY opposition si Duterte when he is just a fade opposition and a YELLOW just
like Mr and Binay who are also Yellows.” Indeed, the hated Yellows have to try
to monopolize the elections by owning all the candidates or else their 1986
counter-revolution may finally end.
Some
of our close friends and long-time fellow travellers in the struggle for
Filipino national emancipation from poverty are with Duterte. One of them is
Dave Diwa, tireless labor union activist. Another with a more politically varied
past is Lito Banayo. Dave is a classic “true
believer” and behaves as such when jumping early onto push Duterte, while
Lito is a Mindanaoeño and political savvy player joining what seems to be a
winning horse. But I get feedback from other fellow social advocates not so
admiring of Duterte.
Dud-terte?
Electricity
Consumer protection advocate and anti-power oligarchy crusader Jojo Borja
called us with fire in his breath raging against the apparent rising popularity
of Duterte and all the “populist” attributes credited him. Borja denounced
Duterete as “tuta” or puppet of the power oligarchs of Mindanao, particularly the likes of Alcantara and
Aboitiz who’re complicit in creating the power shortages in Mindanao and
exploiting these to corner IPP contracts, pus coal fired power plants and creep
towards destroying the hydroelectric power and potential of Mindanao to
privatize them later.
When
one looks just a centimeter below the tough guy façade of Duterte one
immediately sees a dud, actually an effeminate character capable of
exterminating only the small roaches, and legally as in the killing of the
three kidnap-rapists he boasts of since those three were caught holding
firearms. Dud-terte’s legendary peace with the NPA is reportedly bought with revenues
from gold trading hence also the special relations Dutete enjoys with Jose Ma.
Sison. This man is no nationalist as he is supporting the Americans’ yen for
the BBL and federalism to weaken any potential nationalist central government.
###
My presidential candidate?
In the
course of this presidential election campaign I am invariably asked who my
candidate. When I answer that I have none, no one, I am given that incredulous
or that “spoil sport” look. Maybe some also think I am arrogant elevating my
self above their little game and fun. I look at the presidential elections in
this country as merely an opportunity to expose the inanity of it all and hope
that will bring some future social revolution
closer to being realized.
Lately
I found a way to highlight the quality of a presidential candidate that I would
take seriously, i.e. that of having an organized social movement with an
ideology guiding it and the potential of mobilizing military forces behind its
assumption of government. Any candidate without these would just be a puppet,
just as all the major presidential
candidates today in the Philippines are. But I say, my presidential candidate
are all vice-presidential candidates.
Leaders
that are leaders, not oligarchs’ puppets.
Trillanes
has the 500,000 strong Magdalo and the military links to be a true president,
as does Neri Colminares who can count on the movement behind the Makabayan Coalition
that elects up to seven party-list representatives to Congress and the
you-know-what as military arm, and finally Bongbong Marcos who counts on the
Solid North and half of the South, and military still loyal to the memory and
ideals of Apo Ferdie who brought glory to the military establishment once.
Anyone of these three gets the Ayalas and Aboitizes shaking in their ranchero boots.
Climate change summit moro-moro.
I
classify the AGM (Anthropogenic Global Warming) that metamorphosed into the
Climate Change alarmism movement as a globalists’ fraud on a much higher level
than the 2009 Swine Flu scare to sell useless vaccine drugs. Ever since climate
scare businessman (carbon trade consultant) Al Gore came up with his “An Inconvenient
Truth” to exploit the U.N.’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
career bureaucrats, academic “experts” and environmentalist NGOs to keeping
their employment and UN mandated government funding going, Climate as global
and cottage industry has been thriving.
But
the inconvenient truth for them is the “global warming hiatus” or halt for
almost two decades of increase in global temperature since January 1997 (see
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/29/noaa-attempts-hide-pause-global-warming-disgraceful-cover-since-climategate/)
that the global warming alarmists have been attempting to hide and then to
re-interpret to continueiwth the global warming hoax. The latest Climate Change
Paris summit in a very melo-dramatized ending agreed to keep temperature increase
below 2 degrees C through the middle of the century, but another warming pause
can come naturally again and spoil their scare mongering.
It’s
the carbon tax after all.
Climate
Change guru James Hansen lashed out at the Paris Summit for failing to impose
the “carbon tax” which is indeed the true motive of this whole climate change
scare movement. A carbon tax would increase costs and stunt the emerging
economies’ industrial efforts and their populations’ use of modern conveniences
from air conditioning to electric or gas cooking, make transport more
expensive.
Already Filipinos are already
paying higher power prices over the highest power cost in Asia due to
impositions of the Renewable Energy (RE) Act that allows solar, wind and other
REs to charge even more.
It’s
the Solar Cycle, stupid.
The
emissions of 7 billion people of earth that can all fit into the State of Texas
cannot surpass the impact of the other real factors such as the Solar Cycle,
water vapour, natural carbon emissions, the tilt of the Earth, etc. The Solar
Cycle and the Earth’s climate will change in many major ways over the centuries
and millennia as it has always done when the once lush Sahara became desert
tens of thousands of years ago, as Greenland was once green but now is white
with ice and snow, or the land bridges to the Philippines were submerged after
the last Ice Age.
Man must adapt to the powerful
changes brought about by universal shifts and industrial development provides
him tools to adapt faster and effectively.
FOREIGN POLICY –
WISE COUNSEL
FROM FILIPINO SCHOLAR PROF. LUCIO PITLO
III:
“Very well put! How to advance to a next strategy that
leads to a negotiated outcome, with the best possible terms for our nation, is
a timely topic given our political transition. Thanks! – ERICSON BACULINAO”
Moving Beyond the Jurisdiction Victory in the West
Philippine Sea
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, 09 December 2015
In doing so, the Philippines should bear in mind some key
considerations: 1) it should not confuse the means with the ends; 2) it should
observe the evolving regional environment and see how its actors, including fellow
South China Sea claimants, respond to China's behavior and; 3) it should take a
page from the experience and practice of its neighbors, like Vietnam, in
dealing with China.
Means are not ends
The work does not end with the tribunal's decision as
this body has no enforcement mechanism. Rather, the third party arbitration
decision should be seen more as an enabler. A favorable judgment for the
Philippines will undeniably confer on it higher ground in succeeding dialogues
with China. A legal victory can help address the power assymetry in the
negotiation table between the two states that has long been the source of
anxiety and uneasiness on the part of smaller states when discussing
territorial and maritime disputes with a bigger neighbor (and this unbalanced
power relations is also driving smaller states to engage extra-regional powers
as a mitigating measure). International reputational costs may encourage China
to be more accommodating to legitimate Philippine demands, particularly in
relation to access over marine resources, security assurance, and ensuring
freedom of navigation and overflight in the WPS. China may choose to behave
like other hegemons counting on past precedents like the 1986 US vs Nicaragua
International Court of Justice case to justify its recalcitrance – that big
powers cannot be compelled into submission by the international legal system
and they can get away with it. But doing so would run contrary to the peaceful
rise mantra that it espouses. It will also run counter to China's aspirations
of cultivating harmonious relations with its neighbors, invite interference of
other parties and contribute to regional instability which does not in any way
work towards Beijing's favor. Hence, with an appreciation of the
aforementioned, whatever benefit the Philippines can obtain from the
arbitration ruling should better be used as a leverage in negotiating with
China.
No friends, just interests
The Philippine legal challenge against China had been
likened to an epic battle between might vs right, Goliath vs David , the
giant or major world power vs the underdog and even more interestingly between
dark vs light, among others. But, in real life, international relations, its
actors and their motivations are hardly black and white. Former French general,
leader and statesman President Charles de Gaulle said that “France has no
friends, only interests”. Similarly, British leader Lord Palmerston also
remarked that “nations have no permanent friends or allies, only permanent
interests” and the pursuit of such interests may be driving recent British
policy to closely engage China even at the risk of jeopardizing its
longstanding special trans-Atlantic ties with the US. How will the
international community behave when a final favorable ruling is awarded to the
Philippines? Will they apply pressure on China to encourage its compliance
knowing the same may antagonize their burgeoning interdependent economic
relations and further push China against the wall and give credence to
hardliners in Beijing who view the international system as being manipulated to
contain and prevent China's rise? Much expectation had been accorded to strong
backing from the international community once a decision comes out despite
little appreciation of emerging realities.
Every challenge – like the WPS disputes - can also be
seen as an opportunity and the flurry of wheeling and dealing among littoral
states in the region in recent years demonstrates attempts to compromise and
trade concessions from one another. And in most of these actions, the
Philippines is being left out. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan
(and recently Australia), did send observers to the Hague proceedings but their
preoccupation is arguably more towards assessing the implications of the case
towards their own claims and less of a show of support to the Philippine
position. In fact, other littoral states are free riding at Manila's back,
expressing various degrees of support, albeit token, to the case while still
engaging with China and other disputants. As a result, they had exacted
considerable concessions from the competition of great powers without getting
entangled in their geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry. The partial
jurisdiction victory may convince adherents, as well as critics alike, that the
Philippine administration is on the right track, but the road is still long and
the destination still remains uncertain. For the time being, other interested
parties to the case, including other claimant states, are obtaining insurance
and not putting all their eggs in one basket.
Taking a page from Vietnam's book
If there is any claimant state that has the most axe to
grind against China in the South China Sea (SCS), it can only be Vietnam –
losing control of the Paracels and losing 64 soldiers in the skirmish over
Johnson South Reef in the Spratlys in 1988. But Vietnam's position in dealing
with China, especially over SCS, is not solely confrontational but
rather includes a strong engagement element as well. Deep familiarity with the
Chinese engendered by centuries of living under Chinese rule and shared
political and economic systems made Vietnam very adept in dealing with China.
After the May 2014 oil rig incident where China and
Vietnam traded accusations of ship ramming and which also precipitated a series
of anti-Chinese demonstrations across Vietnam, Chinese State Councilor Yang
Jiechi visited Hanoi to mend frayed ties and in July of the following year
Vietnamese Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong visited Washington,
culminating a series of high level US-Vietnamese exchanges and visits that
began in 2013. The Chinese oil rig was removed from Vietnam's EEZ and Vietnam
gained a partial lifting of the US-imposed arms embargo against it, not to
mention obtaining US support for its maritime security. During the oil rig
standoff,
the
initiation of legal challenge against China was put
on the table but whatever
mutual
concessions both
sides traded, it was enough to prevent Vietnam from
taking legal action.
The November 7, 2015 visit of Chinese President Xi
Jinping to Hanoi was widely seen as a step to repair relations damaged by the
oil rig row. President Xi Jinping was given a rare opportunity to address
Congress. Both sides issued a
Joint
Statement saying that the visit was a success in terms of
“contributing greatly to cementing the traditional friendship, deepening the
Viet Nam-China comprehensive strategic co-operative partnership, and promoting
peace, stability and development in the region and the world.”
(Interestingly, the purported visit of US President Obama to Vietnam did not
push through). However, while continuing its engagement with China,
Vietnam, at the same time, has also invited Japan to
participate in a humanitarian exercise and for a Japanese warship to call at
strategic Cam Ranh Bay. In addition, at the sidelines of APEC 2015 held in
Manila, Philippines and Vietnam, two vocal critics of China's assertive actions
in SCS, elevated their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership. All
these demonstrate Vietnam's effective nuanced approach in balancing its
relations with great powers to advance its own comprehensive national interests
– security, economic and political. These experience and practices can serve
valuable lessons to the Philippine leadership as it continues to develop its
China policy in the years to come, regardless of the outcome of the arbitration
case.
Never too soon or too late to talk
It is neither too soon nor too late for the Philippines
and China to find ways to resume high-level and meaningful engagements, as well
as explore alternative ways of managing the disputes. All states would say that
they have indisputable sovereignty or sovereign rights over territories or
waters they claim which are contested and this is to be expected. But the fact
that they are willing to discuss the issue, through bilateral dialogues or
gradually through regional mechanisms, suggests a veiled acknowledgment of the
existence of the dispute. Boundary negotiations require sustained political
will and commitment and have long time horizons – Philippines and Indonesia
recently settled their maritime boundary after 20 years of negotiations,
China and Vietnam settled their maritime boundary in the Beibu (Tonkin) Gulf
after 27 years and the Sino-Russian land and riverine (including islands in the
river) boundary took 40 years of hard work from both sides. China made it clear
that the
withdrawal
of the case is not a precondition for such talks and that the
Philippines
is not being excluded from
its recent trade, connectivity and financial initiatives such as the
One Belt, One Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. That bilateral
trade continues and even had some modest growth despite of the tensions
demonstrating that doors remain open and that such openings can be further
expanded. After a brief halt,
Philippine
agricultural exports to China resumed and the
easing
of restrictions on direct chartered flights from selected Chinese
points of origin to various Philippine destinations boosted Philippine
tourism.
Philippines should engage China not on the basis of fear
or misperception but rather out of conviction and confidence, especially coming
after the partial jurisdiction triumph, knowing that it is in China's best
interests to showcase its good neighborhood policy by respecting and reassuring
legitimate Philippine national security needs and maritime economic interests.
China cannot be a respected world leader if it cannot be even acknowledged as a
responsible neighbor in its immediate backyard. Engaging or talking with China
does not mean that the Philippines is backing down or showing less nationalism
in the same way as it cannot be said for the Vietnamese, Indonesians (and the
rest of ASEAN states) and even for the Koreans, Japanese and Americans. The WPS
disputes had been there since the 1940s and even early on by some accounts, and
the end of such disputes is nowhere in sight. However, despite the persistence
of the disputes and occasional outbursts, successions of leaderships among
coastal states had shown a commitment to handle the disputes without infringing
on the fundamentals of regional security and stability. As it continues to
challenge longstanding US primacy in the region, much will be expected
from China – the brand of leadership it wants to showcase and the kind of
attitude it will display in handling disputes, especially with its immediate
neighbors.
In sum, given the character and nature of the WPS dispute,
it is less likely that an enduring solution will be anchored on a legal one
where the possibility of a clear winner and a clear loser will be produced and
where interests of other relevant parties may not be taken into full
consideration. Rather, the solution may be more political and diplomatic,
something that can be drawn from confidence-building and negotiations where
attempts to balance interests and exchange concessions may make for a more
durable peace.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a Project Consultant to the
Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation Inc. He is also an Assistant
Professorial Lecturer for International Studies at De La Salle University and
Contributing Editor (Reviews) of the journal Asian Politics & Policy.
Typhoon
Yolanda was the strongest weather turbulence experienced by Filipinos
in living memory. It packed a center wind of 380 kilometers per hour, a
fury they never anticipated will completely change their lives. Typhoon
Yolanda obliterated the City of Tacloban and the towns of Palo, Tanauan,
Tolosa , Dulag, and its path created a wide swath of destruction from
Samar, Capiz and as far as Mindoro. In such areas directly hit by the
“eye” of the typhoon, the stench of death was everywhere. 
