Why Philippine membership of AIIB is full of twists and turns

This was reprinted and/or republished in Xinhua, People’s daily, Global times and many other media portal in China, and “lianhe zaobao” from Singapore put this article in their website. Professor Lucio Pitlo III’s analysis is attracting many interests. It coincided that Global time also published an editorial commenting the Manila AIIB membership. Its general tune is positive, and describes it as “the road to happiness is full of hardships”.

Why Philippine membership of AIIB is full of twists and turns
Professor Luico Pitlo III. January 2016.

On Dec 30, 2015, just before the deadline of qualification as a founding member of AIIB, the Philippines hit a buzzer beater and announced its joining. Looking back at the process of Philippines membership of AIIB, It is really full of twists and turns. Philippines were among the first batch of 21 countries who had the intention to become the founding member of AIIB. However, when a big number of major western powers joined the bank one by one, Philippines instead hung back. At the time the public almost forgot the issue of Philippines membership, Philippines caught the last train to the surprise of many.

Why did the Philippines “start early, finish late”? Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a scholar from De La Salle University Philippines, elaborates the reasons behind.

Can they sail on to Pugad and Sabah?

Can they sail  on to Pugad and Sabah?

December 29, 2015 Blog; Tuesday.

                Are those Faeldon’s little boys and girls on the excursion to one of the islands of the Spratley’s or the Kalayaan Islands Group? Marine Capt. Faeldon is the self-styled “patriot” who wanted to sail on his own small dinghy to some of the Kalayaan Islands to confront China’s force present there.

Blog November 14, 2015. Saturday.

Blog November 14, 2015. Saturday.
7:30am

First thing on our agenda, as every morning, is our 30 minute exercise. AT least 20 to 30 minutes of Intermittent High Intensity Treadmill walk and run, then one set of declined bench press with 60 lbs. weights. For a 64- year old that shouldn’t be too bad – and I feel extremely good about it. Fasting blood sugar at 105 mg/dL is great, without any medication but with one Chromium Picolinate supplement right after a moderate meal but with several teaspoons of leche flan last night; so I’m in good shape as I rev up for the day.

                                                          Exposing Inquirer-U.S. propaganda.

First observation on our newspaper headlines for today is the Inquirer attempt at misleading the headlining scanning public, and even if one reads through its “Sea rows still top US agenda, US B-52 bombers fly close to China man-made islands” but without the critical eye the subterfuge may still be missed.

The first impression a cursory viewer of the headline would have is the disruptive possibility that the “China Sea” controversy may be raised by the U.S. at the APEC Leaders’ Summit next week despite the Philippines’ commitment to keep the issue out of the purely economic summit. That, I believe, will be the impression left on most cursory scanners of the report and propaganda points against China would have been achieved.
Only by reading through the details does one get to realize that the headline and report is about an entirely different set of events where the discussion of the China Sea issue is always tackled, here the relevant portion with our underscoring:

“Sea rows still top US agenda

US B-52 bombers fly close to China man-made islands

WASHINGTON—… US National Security Adviser Susan Rice said territorial claims in the South China Sea, which have put the United States in direct dispute with China, would feature prominently during a trip to the Philippines and Malaysia, but played down hopes for a “code of conduct” to ease tensions.

“This will be a central issue of discussion both at the East Asia summit as well as at the Asean-US summit (both in Kuala Lumpur) and the other engagements that we have throughout our visit to Asia,” Rice said…”

The report also gives the impression that the U.S. is toughening up on China as it impresses on the readers that “ …. two US B-52 strategic bombers flew close to artificial islands built by China in the heavily contested South China Sea.”  Few will take note of the fact that these “flybys” of the B-52s are 1,100 kilometres away from the island of Hainan where U.S. planes used to flyby or even enter China’s air space with impunity. The U.S. is now crowing about their “daring” challenge to the new islands but actually showing how successful China is in pushing China’s security envelope so much farther out from its shorelines now.

The Inquirer report is attributed to “Reports for AFP (Agence France Presse)” so nobody can be identified who culled the reports and be questioned as to how this item was put together. So, fellow critical news readers, beware of the Inquirer and the U.S.’s Asia-destabilizing news reports.  ###

Two Reports in the Making.

                                           The Ancient Maritime Silk Road and the Galleon Trade.

We are preparing several reports that will take a little bit of time writing, These are: 1) The Binondo Heritage Foundation history lecture from the wise and very senior Mr. Cua Ching Tam, a Filipino-Chinese award winning author of short stories.

Mr. Cua resides in Quezon City and was invited to share his historical and personal experiences living as an expat in the Philippines and seeing his sense of being an “alien” watching his first Flores de Mayo when he arrived in this country over sixty years ago until now watching his children grapple with questions like “If there is war between China and the Philippines, which side would one take.”, and advising his son to “of course defend the Philippines”. But there, of course, there will be no war as that is only the wish of the Western Power and not any of the Asian neighbors.

By the way, Mr. Cua is also the very person who clarified to the audience at the Binondo Heritage Foundation discussion that Spain would have left the Philippines as a colony if not for the profitable link established by Miguel Lopez de Legaspi between the Ancient Maritime Silk Road and the Galleon Trade (Acapulco Trade) in which the latter generated profits for Spain using Manila as transhipment for Porcelain, Silk and Tea from China which was 90% of the trade. More on this in the report to come.

                                           Amb. Albert A. Encomienda comes out slugging.

Amb. “Bert” Encomienda is one of the unknown soldier of the Department of Foreign Affairs who has dedicated a lifetime to serving the Republic through implementation of its foreign policies. After close to forty years of service Bert went into retirement visualizing a life of a gentleman-farmer.

However, after watching how the China Sea issues have been so distorted by some prominent and statured individuals that are highlighted by mainstream media, Amb. Encomienda was stirred by such revulsion and impassioned to come out of retirement an start engaging the issues on the China Sea matters again.

Amb. Encomienda has written a book entitled “The South China Sea Issues and Related Core Interests of the Philippines”. It’s a 90-page folio book which if in pocket size would be at least 200 pages. It’s seven parts consists of discussion of the legal, political and geopolitical issues, making powerful points that demolishes the arguments presented by the “anti-dialogue” elements of some groups advocating acrimonious litigation of the China Sea disputes instead of continuing harmonious bilateral talks that have solved even the most contentious disputes between China and India, China and Vietname (ex. Land border and Gulf of Tonkin demarcation).

Amb. Encomienda’s book was published with financial contributions fo his children, but we hope to help him publish more copies after his updating of some aspects, and serialize the book in this and other blogs and websites.

While we’re working on these two, and maybe other reports, the following are two essential videos for adding to your knowledge of the Refugee-Migrant Crisis now facing Europe and “What the media is hiding”, and the other abut the “Declining Pax American”. Watch them at your leisure, we provede them here for your convenience but you can also log into SyriagirlPartisan and RT (Russia Today) on You Tube.

SyrinaGirlPartisan           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHFnvFbThDE

RT                        https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/321797-us-declining-pax-americana/

HAVE A FINE, FIGHTING DAY!!!

US bolsters presence in South China Sea

 "Word of advice to U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter on his aggression in Asia - from a Filipino nationalist columnist of the Malaya newspaper Diego Cagahastian" - HTL
=========================
COMMENTARY
November 8, 2015
 
US bolsters presence in South China Sea
By DIEGO C. CAGAHASTIAN



First it was the guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen that sailed more than a week ago near the reefs and atolls that had been upgraded by China as artificial islands in the South China Sea, particularly the Subi Reef in the Spratlys island chain.

Now, it is the turn of the massive aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to sail in that sea, accompanied still by the USS Lassen.

These naval initiatives, the US said, are being done in furtherance of their self-imposed mission to ensure that freedom of navigation is maintained in the region.

As the Theodore Roosevelt sailed, US Department of Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told a forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California that "the United States joins virtually everyone else in the region in being deeply concerned about the pace and scope of land reclamation in the South China Sea."

Carter stressed that he was worried about the prospect of further militarization, as well as the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states."

US officials have charged that China is dredging the area to turn reefs into larger land masses for runways and military facilities. For China, this is just a normal thing to do, since it believes that the area belongs to their territory, and they exercise sovereignty over it. However, freedom of navigation is not threatened, China stressed.

In fact, in his speech before the 36th Singapore Lecture of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore on Nov. 7, President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China promised to safeguard freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, amid the ongoing regional tension.

Xi said there has never been any problem with freedom of navigation and overflight, nor will there be in the future.

There is truth to what he said, that China needs unimpeded passage through the waters more than anyone else.

Xi said, "We have absolute confidence and capability in maintaining the peace and stability. This can be done through negotiations and the establishment of reasonable maritime rights."

China has protested as illegal the earlier presence of USS Lassen there, and had called it a "deliberate provocation." It has sent two warships to shadow the US vessel and issue warnings. Although no international law was violated because the Lassen can just claim "innocent passage," clearly the combative pronouncements from Washington by officials like Carter reveal that the passage was premeditated and planned, cleared even by the highest authorities in the US capital.

Xi Jingping is correct in pointing out that China is "committed to working with countries with direct stake in the issue to solve the dispute on the basis of respect of historical facts, according to international laws and through discussions and negotiations." This is the same legal line taken by the Philippines in pursuing its claim -- by going to the United Nations arbitration court, although this route was rendered ineffective with China's insistence that the issue is one of sovereignty, and not maritime matter.

It stands to reason, however, why Secretary Carter has been using the argument that countries in the region, especially the claimants like the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Brunei are deeply concerned about the Chinese construction efforts.

What deep concern is Carter talking about? The defense chiefs of these countries, together will all defense chiefs of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have concluded a high-level meeting and even refused to issue a statement concerning the South China Sea dispute. So, where is the deep regional concern that would merit American naval presence there, that would justify as emergency the sailing of the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Lassen in the troubled waters west of the Philippines?

Isn't Carter and his ilk in Washington stoking the fire to create a conflagration in the region?

The Philippines, the nearest claimant to the place, is not even talking tough as much as the Pentagon chief.

This American stance which is fleshed out by Carter has long been anticipated by many observers in the Philippines and in the region, since the US indicated unequivocally that it will defend the international freedom of navigation in these waters, challenging the Chinese argument that the reefs and atolls are part of Chinese territory.

Recall what Carter said in a defense and security forum last Oct. 13. He said, "Make no mistake, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do around the world, and the South China Sea is not and will not be an exception."

He added that they will do it "at a time and places of our choosing."

To these strong words, Chinese diplomat Zhu Haiquan in Washington could only meekly assure that China will respect the, freedom of navigation, and that this freedom, along with overflight, should not be used as an excuse to flex muscle and undermine other countries' sovereignty.

As this exchange of contrasting arguments happen, the Philippines remains an observer with little voice, and possible venue of conflict between the two superpowers.

Especially so because the US State Department defines any US action in support of freedom of navigation as something sanctioned by international law, and does not need consultations with other countries or allies before implementation.

The Philippines admittedly has a weak military force compared to China, with logistics and resources of the economy not even comparable to this giant neighbor.

This forces Manila to take only the next best thing, which is to go to the United Nations arbitration court to press its claim over the Spratly archipelago of reefs, atolls and islets, and hope that China would toe the line if a favorable ruling is given.

The problem is China does not recognize that the UN panel has jurisdiction over the matter, it being a sovereignty issue and not one involving maritime or navigation.

The government of President Aquino should not just stand by the wayside and wait for the consummation of the disaster-waiting-to-happen. It should at least tell the US officially not to fan the embers of regional trouble by turning the issue from diplomacy to military.

Filipino fishermen in coastal communities of Zambales and Palawan have suffered enough from Chinese bullying, as the diplomats in Manila try to contain the problem by working through UN channels.

A wrong move by the US would be considered meddling, giving China the alibi to react, and devour us all in a conflagration nobody in the Philippines wanted.

##

(emphasis ours)

An Indian View of the South China Sea issues

"India is a major new power in the World, its views are of serious import to theglobal community and our Asean and national realties. The Indian view of the SCS controversy is that the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea must be firmed up by Consensus. It is a wise counsel and an Asian approach, unlike the U.S. which insists to "lord it over" and have its way... towing its vassal state along, i.e. the Philippines. - HTL

Frolicking on the China Sea

October 28, 2015

Frolicking on the China Sea

(Herman Tiu Laurel Blog)

The Bully treads gingerly

Instead of lording it over Asia like it used to in the 20^th Century, barging around the countries of East Asia, including what used to be called Indochina, like a drunken sailorwrecking everything in its path, the U.S. now has to take gingerly steps in showing that it can still assert itself in this second decade of the Asian 21^st Century.  That’s thanks to China’s rise and pushback on the U.S. hegemon’s bullying away from the shores of Asia’s mainland to the farthest reaches of the South China Sea.

Pushed 1,000 km. away from Hainan

In the 1954-1955 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the U.S. sent its Seventh Fleet to intervene in Taiwan, bullying the People’s Republic of China (PRoC) by its superior guns and warplanes.  In 2001, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) scrambled its J-8 interceptor fighter jets to warn away an intruding U.S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals intelligence aircraft entering China’s air space; the encounter resulted in the crash of one J-8 fighter with its pilot never found and the U.S. plane’s forced landing and capture on Hainan Island.

In 2013, China declared an East China Sea ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) overlapping Japan’s ADIZ, which the latter declared in 1969 covering its EEZ (exclusive economic zone) and protruding midway into China’s new ADIZ.  After a year of tumult in the Western press about it and a few challenges by U.S. planes flying across the zone triggering alerts and warnings from China,this new East China Sea ADIZ has already become an accepted fact. Now the hubbub is over China’s maritime-use reclamation projects in the South China Sea, near Subi and Mischief reefs, about 1,000 km. from Hainan.

But a new line has been written in the sand,as the Global Times--the most militant of the three main Chinese official newspapers (along with China Daily and People’s Daily)--of October 27, 2015 had this to say of the U.S. Navy-guided missile destroyer USS Lassen’s “tour” within the 12 nautical miles of China’s reclaimed islands:“After the show, it’s time for the U.S. destroyer to leave.”  That “tour” was essential for the U.S. to shore up its severely weakened image globally and to its few remaining admirers in Asia.

China will indulge the U.S. as long as it does not go beyond self “ego massage.”This much had been what University of the Philippines maritime law expert Prof. Jay Batongbacal phrased very diplomatically during a Round-Table-Discussion early this October at the Ateneo de Manila: “Don’t expect a U.S.-China ‘hot’ war, it won’t happen.  Soft and hard power are being employed from both sides as a new global multipolar order is an accepted, though unexpressed, given already.”

The Philippines should take its cue from Britain

President Xi Jinping of China’s 4-day visit to the U.K. from October 20to 24 has been dubbed as a new “golden era” of Chinese-British relations marked by spectacular agreements signed between the two countries that were erstwhile bitter protagonists from the 19^th Century through the Opium War until the hand-back of Hong Kong to China. Even as the U.S. expressed dismay over the U.K.’s joining of the AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank), which is seen to weaken the U.S. dollar’s domination, the U.K. has expanded its ties with China.

The U.K. and China signed agreements ensuring cooperation in economic, cybersecurity, and military matters, all marking the high point achieved in establishing a harmonious relationship between the two countries; but the most spectacular economic deal concluded was the Hinkley Point nuclear power station that a Chinese state-owned company will invest £6 billion in when it is built in 2025. Besides this, an air agreement to bolster travels between both countriesthat will boost the British economy, along with several collective oil and gas projects, were finalized, capping a total of $62 billion deals signed.

Meanwhile, still on the wish list of the U.K. is its bid to become the center of renminbi currency trading, which the People’s Bank of China has signaled to be in the offing. This is important to London as it wants to jump the gun on the rest, as one British magazine quoted Standard Chartered Europe Chief Executive Richard Holmes,“We’re seeing the internationalization of the Renminbi growing at a pretty brisk pace here… There’s a lot further to go. And that’s due to what I view as the end of U.S. dominance.”A Euronext NV commissioned study forecasts that as much as $5 trillion of Chinese money will flow into assets on European exchanges before the decade is up.

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is set to give the green light to China’s yuan joining its currency basket this November. This will place the yuan on par with the dollar, yen, euro, and pound sterling. France and the United Kingdom are backing the yuan's inclusion and countries such as Germany and Italy have expressed openness to the inclusion of the yuan.  The Philippines, which is being stirred to “gung ho” insanity by the U.S. naval ship USS Lassen’s brush of China’s reclaimed South China Sea island at Subi, should sober up and take a cue from American’s own cousins thatcooperation with China is more beneficial than confrontation.

Indonesia: Third Parties, U.S. not needed

While Western and Philippine mainstream media will try to make much of the news released on October 29 of The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s(or Tribunal’s) claimed jurisdiction over the case the Philippines filed against China on the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea to declare features in the disputed area as “rocks” and not “islands,” a consequence I predicted much earlier based on understanding the self-serving interests of the Tribunal and its personnel, this involvement of “third parties” to Asian and ASEAN concerns is not universally welcomed.

Two weeks before the Tribunal claimed jurisdiction,Indonesia’s defense minister Ryamizard Ryacudu told state-run news agency Antaraat the ASEAN-China defense ministers’ meeting that countries with conflicting South China Sea claims can engage in negotiations in order to calm tensions and resolve issues on their own, saying, “There’s no need to involve other parties in resolving the dispute.”  Ryacudu was, in fact, reported to have averred to an ASEAN-China joint South China Sea patrol during Indonesian President Jokowi’s visit to the United States(see The Diplomat, Oct. 17, 2015, “China Reveals New Proposal to Boost Defense Ties with ASEAN States”).

While the U.S. and the exiting Philippine government expect to gain propaganda mileage from the Tribunal, the reality on the ground (or the waters) is that China’s reclaimed islands are there to stay and China will never participate in anything that involves third parties to the bilateral issues between it and a very small minority of ASEAN members. This tactic of rooting the Tribunal on is to provide an excuse to keep the Philippines from engaging China and to continue U.S.-Japan monopoly over Philippine foreign policy.

After provocation, U.S. talks

While the BS Aquino government continues its infantile policy of “no talks” with China and drumbeats on the USS Lassen’s excursion into Chinese waters, the U.S. does otherwise.

The commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, is scheduled to visit China on November 2, 2015 where talks with Chinese military officials will be held to discuss bilateral military exchanges. The talks were planned before the USS Lassen sailed on Subi Reef waters, which may indicate that the entire scenario was scripted and the provocation carefully timed.

Harris’ talks will certainly include discussion on measures between the two military establishments to avoid “misjudgements” and “unintended consequences” amid the tango to ensure “freedom of navigation” for both sides in the South China Sea. The frolicking of these two navies may be a prolonged dance over the next months and years.  And it is something that Asia and ASEAN will have to get used to in no time at all.

                                                #          #          #

Xi disarms the hordes at the gates

September 27, 2015
Xi disarms the hordes at the gates

One of the most significant historical events happening before the eyes of the 21^st Century world, and riveting every political observer's attention, has been the Chinese leader President Xi Jinping's recent state visit to the U.S. The U.S. and its President Barack Obama fittingly hosted a spectacular welcome, complete with 21-gun salute. Everything about the visit was positive. The aggressive U.S. right wing, anti-China elements could not even stage any disruptive actions to mar the visit.

From the touchdown of President Xi in Seattle where he signed the immediate take-off of the world's unprecedented deal of 300 units of Boeing planes (of over 6,000 needed in the next two decades) to the various meetings of the two countries' major business leaders. President Xi arrived in Washington welcomed by President Obama and the speeches of the two presidents that vanquished all the fears the past few months from festering issues over alleged cyber-spying.

Sorry, Loida; Obama's got priorities.
Filipinos associated with the West Philippine Sea Coalition and a small group of Fil-Ams, identified with Loida Nicolas-Lewis and U.S. lawyer Rodel Rodis, want Filipinos in the Philippines to have the impression that the South China Sea issue is the top concern for Americans in relation to China. As the Xi-Obama talks went it is clear the U.S. have other higher priorities.

This is highlighted by the Reuters report of September 25, 2015 saying, "Speaking after White House talks during Xi's first U.S. state visit, Obama quickly homed in on the thorniest dispute between the world's two biggest economies--growing U.S. complaints about Chinese hacking of government and corporate databases, and the suspicion in Washington that Beijing is sometimes behind it."

The same report said, "Xi reiterated China's denial of any government role in the hacking of U.S. corporate secrets and said the best way to address the problem was through bilateral cooperation and not to 'politicize this issue'… China has routinely insisted that it too is a victim of cyber hacking… Analysts said the agreement was significant."

Edward Snowden on Obama's mind?
The British paper The Guardian reports Obama's words: "President Xi indicated to me that with 1.3 billion people he can't guarantee the behaviour of every single person on Chinese soil.  I understand that… What I can guarantee, though, and what I am hoping that President Xi will show me is that we are not sponsoring these activities and that … we take it seriously and will cooperate to enforce the law."

I note the word "we" Obama used which may be a polite editorial "they" or "he" or may also be a slip of the tongue in light of NSA (National Security Agency) whistle-blower Edward Snowden's revelations, as far back as 2013 while hiding in Hong Kong, that the US with its PRISM program has been massively cyber-spying on China for years.  However, it is clear that Obama is conciliatory in this regard.

Cool climate between Xi, Obama.
The two presidents reached a "common understanding" on steps to move toward greenhouse gas emission target limits set in previous agreements.  But President Xi had a new card from his sleeve: China would advance from its seven regional carbon cap-and-trade system to making the program "national" in 2017 covering the whole of China to put the lid on the country's emissions, building up from seven regional pilot markets that have already been established and operating in the past years.

Apparently after the years of experiments in the regional level China is confident enough today to establish more stringent carbon emission standards on its industries and on a national level - than even the U.S. does for its industries. However, based on the many expert evaluations of China proposed national cap-and-trade system insufficient details are available for a complete appreciation of the plan. One hope from a Third World perspective is that China's cap-and-trade will not export pollution to smaller countries. China is big enough to do the trading within its own vast borders.

Obama-Xi security trade-off.
The South China Sea issue did not figure as prominently in the Xi-Obama summit in Washington as anti-China rabble-rousers would have wanted. This should be obvious to all since the trade and Climate Change discussions overshadowed it.  Still, it is particularly important for Filipinos be informed of what was most likely the reason the issue was subdued. A credible reason for the downplaying of the SCS issues comes from a Western observer from Forbes magazine, Donald Kirk:

"President Obama and China's President Xi Jinping made an implicit trade-off … The U.S. side of the bargain, in language you won't see in any formal statement, goes like this: You keep North Korea from doing anything crazy, and we won't stop you from whatever you're doing in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.  The Chinese side of the bargain is just as basic: We'll do what we can to talk the North Koreans out of launching a long-range missile… and we won't build military bases in the Spratlys."

BS Aquino imperils R.P. interests
With their dashed hopes for highlighting the West Philippine Sea issue in the Xi-Obama summit, the failure of BS Aquino and his alter egos in Philippine foreign and defence policies have become obvious. They have seriously misread the economic and geopolitical realities of the times.  Since 2011 the BS Aquino government has opted for unquestioning obeisance to American initiatives to re-establish its preeminent power over Asia. China forcefully and skilfully drew its "red lines" forcing the stalemate today that will eventually be the status quo.

Failing to study the concrete, strategic economic-political and military situations of the major countries players involved, Aquino and his alter-egos in the Foreign Affairs and defence department signed on to the "Asia Pivot" of the U.S. to play the role of "agent provocateur". They started with the provocative act of sending in a war vessel, BRP Del Pilar, to arrest Chinese fishermen at the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 to incessant disinformation, such as Voltaire Gazmin's false "concrete blocks" in 2014 in the same area, and continuing agitation.

The EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) that BS Aquino signed in April 2014 with Obama  prompted China on August 2014 to start the massive and breakneck reclamation at the Johnson Reef and other areas.  Obviously, neither BS Aquino nor his foreign and defence secretaries have had an accurate reading of China's strategic mind when they signed the EDCA and opened all Philippine military bases to U.S. military use. R.P.'s interests were not served by any of these

China: winning without fighting.
The strategic decision-makers of China obviously know their Sun Tzu enough to be several steps ahead of the other players in the region.  They have learned Sun Tzu well to know that to "subdue the enemy without fighting" (or as some others quote, "win the war without fighting"), they stay ahead of any credible threat by demonstrating the will and capability to give unequivocal punishment to any aggressor while assuaging aggressive intentions with constructive engagement.

China's heightened firmness on the Nine-Dash Line when challenged, backed by military muscles exhibited in its 70th Year Victory Parade and construction of the South China Sea island facilities shows a tough China, but it is followed up by soft power. President Xi's U.S. visit shows its soft panda power - offering billions in trade with the U.S., and billions more in aid to the U.N. and debt relief to poor nations presented at the Sustainable Development Summit speech.

Stupid as Stupid does
The Philippines' Forrest Gump in Malacañang was simply being "Stupid is as Stupid does" when on September 22, 2015, as the local newspapers put it Aquino "poked fun at Beijing's South China Sea claims, (while praising) Japan."  This, after being chastised black-and-blue twice earlier this year for his "Nazi" comments against China and this, despite the "Palace hoping Xi will attend APEC Summit" just two months before the leaders' November gathering in Manila.

It is to the credit of President Xi that he has decided to attend the APEC summit, as Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines H.E. Zhao Jianhua has hinted, according to the Philippine Star's September 27, 2015 report, which quoted him: "China will continue to support the Philippines for the smooth and successful hosting of the coming APEC meetings… China and the Philippines, he said, are not only neighbours, but are close relatives as well with their shared history … We should and we can be better friends and better partners…"

That is how a confident major world power should speak and relate with the World -- staying above the pettiness of antiquated Cold War geopolitics and "barbarian" past, with only a view for the betterment of humanity.  It's the way I would like to see any major power act and indicates that China is a power that we and the World can trust. ###

We salute Adm. Taccad

We salute Adm. Taccad

(Herman Tiu Laurel / DieHard III / The Daily Tribune / 08-24-2015 MON)

US Naval Academy emanation Roilo Golez has been on a rampage.  He first ran amok against Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Gen. Hernando Iriberri and other AFP higher officers for putting into proper perspective the country's internal security needs relative to its realistic external threats.

The AFP leadership had just reallocated P6.5 billion for the purchase of Israeli missiles, which at best would just be decorations, to the much needed procurement for our troops of better equipment (such as night vision goggles), more powerful weapons, and better protective gear in their fight against proliferating insurgency groups.

Golez called Gen. Iriberri and other high staff officers "incompetent," which the Association of Generals and Flag Officers (AGFO) in a letter to media countered by holding a mirror to Golez's face, declaring him the incompetent.

That AGFO reaction was again reflected in a social media topic among the country's naval experts under the heading, "Will Taccad reverse the Golez/Pama decline (in the Navy)?"  That, of course, was in reference to Rear Admiral Taccad, the new Navy chief appointed very recently, as well as, Golez, former National Security Adviser under Gloria Arroyo, and one of the more recent top Navy officers.

What apparently got Golez foaming at the mouth was Rear Admiral Taccad's pronouncements in an interview with media on the situation in the West Philippine/South China Sea (WPS/SCS), where he said: "It was much heated before.  I think we are in a better position now.  We are communicating with China, and more or less not as threatened as before.  You know what they are trying to do and we try to maintain more or less peaceful coexistence or settlement of what issue we have… They have been there for a long time and they are guarding what they think is their interest in the South China Sea.  No expansion is happening…"

Golez tweeted on Aug. 18, 2015: "Admiral Taccad, you owe the people an explanation," attaching an article by Perry Diaz, a US citizen of Filipino decent blogging on Philippine issues.  Ten years ago I debated with Diaz on the Internet when he adulated Mrs. Arroyo.  But, when the Amboys of Hyatt 10 turned against their erstwhile patron, Diaz also did.  I challenged him to a personal debate on these Philippine issues here in Manila but he insisted to have it in Hawaii--where perhaps the US State Department can be his audience.

The American Diaz seems to feel that he has every right to insult a Filipino officer and gentleman by titling his article, "To whom does Taccad owe his loyalty?" even when Taccad had already prefaced everything by saying, "We will continue to protect our seas and secure the future of our nation and its people.  We shall continue to be a dependable naval force, prompt in response, and sharp in action… I shall steer the Philippine Navy towards continued transformation, modernization, professionalization, and overall progress in order to provide the maritime defense and security that is expected from a strong and formidable navy."

Adm. Taccad was only trying to be objective and accurate when he proclaimed that the situation in the WPS/SCS is cooling down; that communication between the militaries of the two countries has improved (which is one of the actions taken by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations); and that the Philippines is not as "threatened as before."

Taccad also factually stated that China is just protecting its interests over its claims, much like what the Philippines is similarly doing.  If pursuing one's claim is expansionist, then Vietnam and the Philippines are also "expansionist."  It's good that the Asean has called for a freeze and gladly that is happening.

While Diaz uses "aggression" in describing China's actions, he conveniently glosses over the other claimants.  Vietnam, which is currently occupying the largest number of islands (22) in the South China Sea and is also building structures there, should, by Diaz's twisted standards, be accused of being an aggressor.  The same should be true of the Philippines as well in its continued occupation of nine islands, which are more than China's eight.

Moreover, to verify such naked charges of aggression, I reviewed a four-page list of incidents among the claimants at the Boston Globe Forum (http://bostonglobalforum.org/wp-content/uploads/Recent-Trends-changes-in-the-South-China-Sea-Disputes.pdf) and found that, since 1999, the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard have sunk two Chinese fishing boats and killed two Chinese fishermen.  I looked elsewhere on the Internet for any Chinese sinking or killing of Filipino fishermen and found absolutely none.  So who's the aggressor?

Recently, another American franchise, CNN Philippines, added a twist, quoting Magdalo Party-list Rep. Ashley Acedillo at Taccad's installation, saying: "This is now a big problem, because once BRP Sierra Madre disintegrates and we leave the area, the Chinese can immediately take over…"

But why make it such a big deal when Acedillo was merely voicing out a legitimate fear of a prospective situation that could result from a standoff due to a breakdown of communication and BS Aquino's failure of diplomacy with the Chinese government?  Verily, the offer of "dialog without preconditions" is still on the table.  And dialog may still result in shared responsibility over the area and a fisheries agreement.

We have no doubt Party-list Rep. Acedillo and Rear Adm. Taccad are loyal, faithful, and genuinely patriotic Filipinos who are just stating the facts.  It is the Amboys like Golez, Diaz, and their cohorts who distort and exaggerate in order to create wrong impressions that feed the tension between China and the Philippines.

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