October
28, 2015
Frolicking
on the China Sea
(Herman
Tiu Laurel Blog)
The
Bully treads gingerly
Instead
of lording it over Asia like it used to in the 20th Century, barging
around the countries of East Asia, including what used to be called Indochina,
like a drunken sailorwrecking everything in its path, the U.S. now has to take
gingerly steps in showing that it can still assert itself in this second decade
of the Asian 21st Century. That’s
thanks to China’s rise and pushback on the U.S. hegemon’s bullying away from
the shores of Asia’s mainland to the farthest reaches of the South China Sea.
Pushed
1,000 km. away from Hainan
In
the 1954-1955 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the U.S. sent its Seventh Fleet to
intervene in Taiwan, bullying the People’s Republic of China (PRoC) by its
superior guns and warplanes. In 2001,
the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) scrambled its J-8 interceptor fighter
jets to warn away an intruding U.S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals intelligence
aircraft entering China’s air space; the encounter resulted in the crash of one
J-8 fighter with its pilot never found and the U.S. plane’s forced landing and
capture on Hainan Island.
In
2013, China declared an East China Sea ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) overlapping
Japan’s ADIZ, which the latter declared in 1969 covering its EEZ (exclusive
economic zone) and protruding midway into China’s new ADIZ. After a year of tumult in the Western press
about it and a few challenges by U.S. planes flying across the zone triggering
alerts and warnings from China,this new East China Sea ADIZ has already become an
accepted fact. Now the hubbub is over China’s maritime-use reclamation projects
in the South China Sea, near Subi and Mischief reefs, about 1,000 km. from
Hainan.
But
a new line has been written in the sand,as the Global Times--the most militant of the three main Chinese official
newspapers (along with China Daily
and People’s Daily)--of October 27,
2015 had this to say of the U.S. Navy-guided missile destroyer USS Lassen’s “tour” within the 12 nautical
miles of China’s reclaimed islands:“After the show, it’s time for the U.S.
destroyer to leave.” That “tour” was essential for the U.S.
to shore up its severely weakened image globally and to its few remaining
admirers in Asia.
China
will indulge the U.S. as long as it does not go beyond self “ego massage.”This
much had been what University of the Philippines maritime law expert Prof. Jay
Batongbacal phrased very diplomatically during a Round-Table-Discussion early
this October at the Ateneo de Manila: “Don’t expect a U.S.-China ‘hot’ war, it
won’t happen. Soft and hard power are
being employed from both sides as a new global multipolar order is an accepted,
though unexpressed, given already.”
The
Philippines should take its cue from Britain
President
Xi Jinping of China’s 4-day visit to the U.K. from October 20to 24 has been
dubbed as a new “golden era” of Chinese-British relations marked by spectacular
agreements signed between the two countries that were erstwhile bitter
protagonists from the 19th Century through the Opium War until the
hand-back of Hong Kong to China. Even as the U.S. expressed dismay over the
U.K.’s joining of the AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank), which is seen
to weaken the U.S. dollar’s domination, the U.K. has expanded its ties with
China.
The
U.K. and China signed agreements ensuring cooperation in economic, cybersecurity,
and military matters, all marking the high point achieved in establishing a
harmonious relationship between the two countries; but the most spectacular
economic deal concluded was the Hinkley Point nuclear power station that a
Chinese state-owned company will invest £6 billion in when it is built in 2025.
Besides this, an air agreement to bolster travels between both countriesthat
will boost the British economy, along with several collective oil and gas
projects, were finalized, capping a total of $62 billion deals signed.
Meanwhile,
still on the wish list of the U.K. is its bid to become the center of renminbi
currency trading, which the People’s Bank of China has signaled to be in the
offing. This is important to London as it wants to jump the gun on the rest, as
one British magazine quoted Standard Chartered Europe Chief Executive Richard
Holmes,“We’re seeing the internationalization of the Renminbi growing at a
pretty brisk pace here… There’s a lot further to go. And that’s due to what I
view as the end of U.S. dominance.”A Euronext NV commissioned study forecasts
that as much as $5 trillion of Chinese money will flow into assets on European
exchanges before the decade is up.
The
IMF (International Monetary Fund) is set to give the green light to China’s yuan
joining its currency basket this November. This will place the yuan on par with
the dollar, yen, euro, and pound sterling. France and the United Kingdom are backing
the yuan's inclusion and countries such as Germany and Italy have expressed
openness to the inclusion of the yuan. The
Philippines, which is being stirred to “gung ho” insanity by the U.S. naval
ship USS Lassen’s brush of China’s
reclaimed South China Sea island at Subi, should sober up and take a cue from
American’s own cousins thatcooperation with China is more beneficial than
confrontation.
Indonesia:
Third Parties, U.S. not needed
While
Western and Philippine mainstream media will try to make much of the news
released on October 29 of The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s(or Tribunal’s) claimed
jurisdiction over the case the Philippines filed against China on the South
China Sea/West Philippine Sea to declare features in the disputed area as
“rocks” and not “islands,” a consequence I predicted much earlier based on
understanding the self-serving interests of the Tribunal and its personnel,
this involvement of “third parties” to Asian and ASEAN concerns is not
universally welcomed.
Two
weeks before the Tribunal claimed jurisdiction,Indonesia’s defense minister
Ryamizard Ryacudu told state-run news agency Antaraat the ASEAN-China defense
ministers’ meeting that countries with conflicting South China Sea claims can engage
in negotiations in order to calm tensions and resolve issues on their own,
saying, “There’s no need to involve other parties in resolving the
dispute.” Ryacudu was, in fact, reported
to have averred to an ASEAN-China joint South China Sea patrol during Indonesian
President Jokowi’s visit to the United States(see The Diplomat, Oct. 17, 2015, “China Reveals
New Proposal to Boost Defense Ties with ASEAN States”).
While
the U.S. and the exiting Philippine government expect to gain propaganda
mileage from the Tribunal, the reality on the ground (or the waters) is that
China’s reclaimed islands are there to stay and China will never participate in
anything that involves third parties to the bilateral issues between it and a
very small minority of ASEAN members. This tactic of rooting the Tribunal on is
to provide an excuse to keep the Philippines from engaging China and to continue
U.S.-Japan monopoly over Philippine foreign policy.
After
provocation, U.S. talks
While
the BS Aquino government continues its infantile policy of “no talks” with
China and drumbeats on the USS Lassen’s
excursion into Chinese waters, the U.S. does otherwise.
The
commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, is scheduled to
visit China on November 2, 2015 where talks with Chinese military officials
will be held to discuss bilateral military exchanges. The talks were planned
before the USS Lassen sailed on Subi Reef
waters, which may indicate that the entire scenario was scripted and the
provocation carefully timed.
Harris’
talks will certainly include discussion on measures between the two military
establishments to avoid “misjudgements” and “unintended consequences” amid the tango
to ensure “freedom of navigation” for both sides in the South China Sea. The
frolicking of these two navies may be a prolonged dance
over the next months and years. And it
is something that Asia and ASEAN will have to get used to in no time at all.
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